Further decline in inflation in January affirms Bank of Canada pause in March.

Canadian inflation decelerated meaningfully in January despite the continued strength in the economy. Labour markets remain very tight, and retail sales continue strong. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada’s jumbo rate hikes over the past eleven months have tempered inflation from a June ’22 peak of 8.1% y/y to 5.9% in January.

The 3-month average growth in the Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim inflation measures – designed to look through volatility in individual product prices to better gauge underlying price pressures – are running at around 3.5% on a three-month annualized basis. That’s still above the BoC’s 2% inflation target but is well below peak levels last year.

Prices for cellular services and passenger vehicles contributed to the deceleration in the all-items CPI. However, mortgage interest costs and food prices continue to rise.

Last month, inflation excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% y/y. Prices excluding mortgage interest costs rose 5.4%. In both cases, year-over-year price growth was slower than in December. Some of the decline in inflation was due to base-year effects. In January 2022, mounting tensions amid the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with supply chain disruptions and higher housing prices, put upward pressure on prices.

Monthly, the CPI rose 0.5% in January 2023, following a 0.6% decline in December. Higher gasoline prices contributed the most to the month-over-month increase, followed by a rise in mortgage interest costs and meat prices.

Another critical factor in today’s data is that inflation in services eased to 5.3% from 5.6%.

Food prices, however, remain elevated in January (+10.4%) compared to 10.1% in December. Grocery price acceleration in January was partly driven by year-over-year growth in meat prices (+7.3%), resulting from the most significant month-over-month increase since June 2004. Food purchased from restaurants also rose faster, rising 8.2% in January following a 7.7% increase in December.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada must feel pretty good about today’s inflation numbers. They confirm the wisdom of their announced pause in rate hikes at the January meeting. Despite continued strength in the labour market and January retail sales, headline and core inflation measures have declined again, with a five handle now on the headline rate. That is still a long way to the 3.0% inflation forecast by the end of this year, but it is moving in the right direction.

There will be no BoC action when they meet again on March 8. Their press release will be scrutinized for a hawkish versus dovish tone. Regardless of upcoming data, there is virtually no chance of any rate cuts this year.

(Courtesy Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres)
The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in January were the lowest for the month since 2009 and fell 37.1% from a year ago. The Canadian housing market has been sliding for eleven consecutive months as the unprecedented rise in interest rates–up from 25 basis points to 4.5% for the policy rate–has moved buyers to the sidelines. This is an abrupt reversal in the fevered pace of home sales during the pandemic.

The rapid rise in interest rates, designed to combat inflation, has driven many buyers to the sidelines. Higher borrowing costs have reduced affordability despite the sharp decline in prices in many regions.

On a regional basis, sales gains in Hamilton-Burlington and Quebec City were more than offset by declines in Greater Vancouver, Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal.

New Listings

Last month, the number of newly listed homes rose 3.3% on a month-over-month basis, led by increases across British Columbia. Despite the slight increase, new listings remain historically low nationally. New supply in January 2023 hit the lowest level for that month since 2000.

With new listings up and sales down in January, sales-to-new listings eased back to 50.7%. This is roughly where it had been over the entire second half of 2022. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%. There were 4.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2023. This is close to where this measure was in the months leading up to the initial COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, considered historically slow.

Home Prices

Canadian home prices fell by the most on record in 2022 as rapidly rising interest rates forced a market adjustment that is still ongoing.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was 15% below its peak in February 2022. Looking across the country, prices are down from peak levels by more than they are nationally in many parts of Ontario and some parts of B.C. and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, and St. John’s stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks at all.

In contrast, some East Coast markets have bottomed and appear to be trending higher.

Housing Construction Falls

In other news, CMHC reported that the annual pace of housing starts fell 13% in January. The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts for the year’s first month was 215,365 units compared with 248,296 in December.

This is very troubling as the population growth in Canada is slated to be very strong, and rental properties are in very short supply. The housing shortage will only rise. Rents have surged in many parts of the country for new inhabitants, straining household budgets even more.

With interest rates high and the cost of construction booming, many developers are moving to the sidelines.

The table below shows the decline in MLS-HPI benchmark home prices in Canada and selected cities since prices peaked in March when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates. More details follow in the second table below. The most significant price dips are in the GTA and the GVA, where the price gains were spectacular during the Covid-shutdown.

Even with these large declines, prices remain roughly 33% above pre-pandemic levels.

Bottom Line
The Bank of Canada has promised to pause rate hikes assuming inflation continues to abate. We will not see any action in March. But the road to 2% inflation will be a bumpy one. I see no likelihood of rate cuts this year, and we might see further rate increases. Markets are pricing in additional tightening moves by the Fed.

There is no guarantee that interest rates in Canada have peaked. We will be closely monitoring the labour market and consumer spending.

(Courtesy Dr. Sherry Cooper, DLC Economist)

For those who celebrate Family Day, we thought we would highlight some ideas for special things you can do with your loved ones, and remind them how much you care!

From crafts and cooking to volunteer work or exercise classes, below are a few ways you can celebrate Family Day this year:

Cook a Meal Together: From making mini personalized pizzas to cooking up a brand-new recipe or baking something delicious, the kitchen is a great space for family time and making fun memories!

Get Crafty: Time to break out the glitter, glue and fun! Set up a craft station at your house this Family Day to entertain younger children – and reawaken your inner child! Don’t be afraid to get messy and create something fabulous.

Volunteer: A great way to make an impact (and bond with your family while you’re at it) is to volunteer your time together! Consider reaching out to a local organization or finding an event, such as a park clean-up, to participate in.

Try an Exercise Class: Want to enjoy your family and get a little exercise while you’re at it? Try joining a ZUMBA workout or an online exercise class! Not only is this a fun activity you can do with your kids from home, but it is a great way to teach them about health and start setting up healthy habits for life.

Record a Message: Sometimes, the entire family isn’t able to get together but recording a message together and sending it to those aunts, uncles and grandparents who live elsewhere is a great way to celebrate your family no matter where they are in the world.
No matter how you spend it, I hope you have a wonderful Family Day and I wish you and yours the best to come.

Today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) for January was much stronger than expected, once again calling into question how long the Bank of Canada’s rate pause will last. This report showed no evidence that the labour market is slowing in response to the vast and rapid runup in interest rates.

Employment surged by 150,000–ten times more than expected–and most of the gain was in full-time jobs. The employment rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Employment rates among people 55 to 64 have been on a solid upward trend since the summer of 2022, mirroring the rise in employment over that period observed among most demographic groups.

Immigration remains a vital factor in hiring. According to the latest population estimates, in the third quarter of 2022, Canada’s population grew the fastest in over 50 years, mainly driven by an increase in non-permanent residents. In the Labour Force Survey, non-permanent residents represent the majority of a larger group, including those who were not born in Canada and have never been landed immigrants. Non-permanent residents can hold various kinds of work, study, or residence permits. On a year-over-year basis, employment for those not born in Canada and who have never been a landed immigrant was up 13.3% (+79,000) in January, compared with growth in total employment of 2.8% (+536,000).

Average hourly wages rose 4.5% on a year-over-year basis in January, down from 4.8% in December. This is good news for the inflation outlook, but it remains much above the 2% target. Year-over-year wage growth reached 5.0% in June 2022 and peaked at 5.8% in November (not seasonally adjusted).

The unemployment rate remained near a record low, holding steady at 5.0% in January, just shy of the record-low 4.9% in June and July last year.

Employment growth was most robust in wholesale and retail trade, healthcare, education, other services and construction.

Bottom Line

The Canadian jobs market is showing no signs of slowing. This has to make the Bank of Canada at least a bit nervous. The US jobs market data in January was also robust, and the Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, has assured markets that interest rates are likely to rise further.

This is the last jobs report before the Bank of Canada meets again on March 8. The CPI data for January will be released on February 21 and will be the primary factor determining Bank action. If inflation continues to decline, as expected, the rate pause will hold. If not…

(Courtesy DLC Economist Sherry Copper)

4 Key Things to Know about a Second Mortgage.

A second mortgage is a mortgage that is taken out against a property that already has a home loan (mortgage) on it. Generally people take out second mortgages to satisfy short-term cash or liquidity requirements, have an investment opportunity or to pay off higher-interest debts (such as credit cards and student loans) that a second mortgage might offer.

If you are considering a second mortgage for any reason, here are a few key points to keep in mind:

Second Mortgages and Home Equity: Your second mortgage and what you can qualify for hinges on the equity that you have built up in your home. Second mortgages allow you to access between 80 and 95 percent of your home equity, depending on your qualifications.

For example, if you are seeking 95% Loan-to-Value loan (“LTV”):

House Value = $850,000
95% LTV (maximum mortgage amount) $807,500
less: First Mortgage ($550,000)
Amount Available Through Second Mortgage $257,500

Second Mortgages and Interest Rates: When it comes to a second mortgage, these are typically higher risk loans for lenders. As a result, most second mortgages will have a higher interest rate than a typical home loan. There is also the option of working with alternative and private lenders depending on your situation and financial standing.

Second Mortgage Payments: One advantage when it comes to a second mortgage is that they have attractive payment factors. For instance, you can opt for interest-only payments, or you can select to pay the interest plus the principal loan amount. Work with your mortgage broker to discuss options and what would work best for your situation.

Second Mortgage Additional Fees: A second mortgage often comes with additional fees that you should be aware of before going into the transaction. These fees can vary widely but often are a percentage of the mortgage. Other fees to consider include appraisal fees, legal fees to set up the second mortgage and any lender or broker administration fees (particularly with alternative or private lenders).

Second mortgages are a great option for many homeowners and, in some cases, may be a better solution than a refinance or a Home Equity Loan (HELOC). If you are interested in learning more or want to find out if a second mortgage is right for you, don’t hesitate to reach out to me today.

How can homeowners protect themselves against title fraud?

With news stories surrounding title fraud breaking weekly, more homeowners are asking what they can do to protect their homes before they become the next headline. Daniela DeTommaso, President of FCT, addressed the issue in a recent interview on CBC’s Metro Morning with Ismaila Alfa.

“We’re seeing a level of sophistication in these frauds we’ve never seen before,” Daniela explains. “[Fraudsters are] falsifying identification, but to the human eye, you would never know that they’re not the person they’re pretending to be.”

Title fraud impacts both homebuyers and homeowners. Someone whose title has been stolen, or who purchased a fraudulently listed property has few options for recourse. “We’re seeing innocent people on both sides [of transactions] just devastated by something they could never have even imagined could happen to them,” says Daniela.

Industry experts are urging homebuyers to purchase title insurance as part of closing. Tim Hudak, CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) recently described title insurance as “the best safeguard” for homebuyers.

Title fraud protection for existing homeowners:

Title insurance is still an option for homeowners after they take possession, even years later. But once an issue like fraud is discovered, it can be too late to provide coverage. According to Daniela, the best time to purchase a title insurance policy is now.

“There’s no reason you shouldn’t be getting title insurance, just like you wouldn’t buy a house without property and casualty insurance,” she explains. When a homeowner with a title insurance policy learns their title has been stolen, they benefit from more than just their coverage.

“The title insurance company also has a duty to defend,” says Daniela. “That means that the minute we find out [title fraud] has happened, we step in and we protect [the insured]. We pay all of the costs.”

Those costs include the legal fees to restore a homeowner’s title, which can be in the tens of thousands, as well as the costs of investigating the fraud and handling all the legal processes.

“It’s not only compensating for that significant loss,” Daniela continues. “It’s also just providing that peace of mind knowing that someone’s going to navigate this process for you, and any costs […] having to prove that you are who you say you are.”

If you aren’t insured yet, don’t wait for your home to make headlines. Protect yourself and your property with an existing homeowner’s title insurance policy from FCT.